Strategic Minute

Vol. 2. No. 289 July 25, 2023

A Word First

Over the last 55 years, Israel has become an umbilical cord of the United States. Now, Washington is tugging that cord to ensure regime change. Stay tuned.

From on High

"We anticipate negative consequences for Israel's economy and security.”

Moody's warns against investing in strife-ridden Israel.

The End Game

Protesters block the main highway through Tel Aviv on June 25.

Israel's protest movement has been directed by the American playbook.

You might be familiar with the playbook. Over the last 20 years, Washington has used this to topple or destabilize governments in Belarus, Georgia, Russia, Serbia and Ukraine. These campaigns, financed by the United States, feature so-called pro-democracy demonstrations meant to grow increasingly violent until there is regime change.

That's exactly what's going on now in Israel. Washington, with help from the European Union, has poured hundreds of millions of dollars to overthrow the elected government of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. President Joe Biden has issued frequent statements against judicial reform and the Israeli government. Why?  Because Netanyahu's coalition includes partners that question the obsequious Israeli support of the U.S. government, which in return provides $3.8 billion per year to the Israeli elite.

$100 per night

How popular is the protest movement in Israel? Here are the facts: The vast majority of protesters are paid, with the minimum salary of close to $100 per night, not including free food and transportation. Field organizers make several times that amount, and regional coordinators take home pay that far exceeds the salaries in Israel's lucrative hi-tech sector. Still, protests outside Tel Aviv, the bastion of the elite, have not exceeded 10,000.

The campaign reflects the American control of Israel's officialdom. Virtually every major figure in the military, academia, media as well as business, legal and intelligence communities have expressed support for the protests. Many have warned that they will no longer serve the country.

The most glaring example is the Mossad spy agency, which for decades operated in the dark. But on July 24, Mossad director David Barnea issued what appeared to be a threat.

"We serve a democratic state and are not currently in a constitutional crisis," Barnea was quoted as telling his staff. "If we find ourselves in one, we will act according to legal council."

Turn for the worse

Protest leaders claim that their beef is against the government's effort to reform the judiciary, which for decades vetoed legislation, denied government appointments and even set policy. But the latest campaign was planned immediately after Israeli parliamentary elections in November 2022, weeks before Netanyahu's coalition entered office. Every attempt by the new government to discuss the reform package was rebuffed by the U.S.-aligned opposition.

The campaign has entered a new stage. Despite the kid-glove treatment by police and prosecutors, the demonstrators have become far more violent, with young men and women attacking motorists and pedestrians, blocking highways, destroying property and threatening religious Jews. They have been bolstered by former Israeli leaders, including two prime ministers, who are calling for civil war. The latest poll shows that more than half of Israelis are concerned over such a war.

The U.S. playbook also includes attacking Israel's economy. On July 25, major American credit rating companies warned investors against doing business in Israel. 

 "We anticipate negative consequences for Israel's economy and security," Moody's said.

Collision course

The Supreme Court, the very target of change, has been petitioned by the opposition to strike down judicial reform legislation. If it does so, there could be a collision between the elected government and an unelected body of judges. The attorney general, who represents the court's interests, could dissolve the government and declare martial law.

Another scenario is that Israel's opposition would call for direct American intervention, perhaps in the form of an international peace-keeping force to prevent internecine violence. That would result in occupation for years to come.

X factor

Then, there is the X factor: That Israel's enemies would take advantage of the breakdown in law and order. The most likely scenario is that Iran would launch a massive missile war whether in Lebanon, Syria or the Gaza Strip. For the last few weeks, Iran's chief proxy, Hizbullah, itching for a fight, has been provoking Israel’s military along the Lebanon border with the Jewish state.

"This specific day [of the protest campaign] is the worst day in the history of Israel, as some Israelis testify, and this day sets the country on a path toward disappearance," Hizbullah chief Hassan Nasrallah said.