A Word First
Singapore has been one of the greatest success stories over the last 50 years: A city-nation that has become an economic powerhouse and haven for the rich. Today, its longtime prime minister steps down with a warning to his colleagues.
From On High
"Even if we just become ordinary, average, we will already be in serious trouble."
Outgoing Prime Minister Lee warns of looming dangers for Singapore.
The Xi Model
Man of the people: Lee Hsien Loong presses the flesh at the latest May Day rally.
Not many leaders who aren't out-and-out dictators could pride themselves on staying in power for nearly 20 years. One of them is Lee Hsien Loong, the outgoing prime minister of Singapore.
Lee has been shifting in his seat for more than a decade. In 2012, Singapore's third prime minister, the eldest son of the nation's first premier, said he did not want to serve past 70. He is now 72.
A math protege, Lee has been credited with transforming Singapore into a world-class business hub, the only country in Asia with a triple A credit rating. Since he assumed office in 2004, the island's GDP rose from $194 billion to more than $600 billion in 2023. It has become the haven of the superrich.
The key to Singapore's success has been the extremely tight hold by the ruling People's Action Party, led by Lee. Forget Putin or Kim Jong, Chinese President Xi Jinping's poster boy is Lee, who has proved that through family, tradition and social conformity, you can be transformed into an economic juggernaut that can keep you in power forever.
Little wonder that Lee's main ally is Beijing. China provides the hard power that allows Singapore to focus on taking care of business. Beijing has been the island's largest trading partner since 2013. The Chinese leadership also approved the development of Singapore's military and defense establishment by Israel, including the adoption of its conscription and reserve service. The arrangement allowed Israeli technology to flow from Singapore to China.
Singapore, which contains an ethnic Chinese majority, also serves as the smiling intermediary for Xi with his cautious neighbors in East Asia and the openly hostile United States. Through its economic power, Singapore has managed to maintain diplomatic relations with both Washington and its nemesis North Korea. Singapore has retained Xi's trust to the extent that it hosted the first summits between Pyongyang and Washington as well as Taiwan and China.
The envoy of Xi
But Lee, himself Chinese, has managed to do what Xi could not attain: The former has succeeded in maintaining the notion that Singapore is a democracy. This, despite harsh restrictions on expression, association and protests. Until last year, homosexuality was a crime. Today, drug offenders continue to be executed, caning remains widespread, private communications routinely monitored and freedom of movement curtailed. Gadflies of all sorts have been arrested and imprisoned without charge. The government essentially owns the media and controls labor unions.
The good news is that Singapore has what appears to be the fairest of laws. The bad news is that the former British colony operates two judicial systems. One is based on open hearings and civil judges. The other is essentially secret, stemming from the so-called Internal Security Act. Under ISA, anything goes.
"The ISA specifically excludes recourse to the normal judicial system for review of a detention order made under its authority," the State Department said in its 2022 human rights report on Singapore. "...The law specifies that some offenses, such as robbery or rape, do not require an arrest warrant."
How to stay in power
How did Lee's ruling PAP stay top dog for close to 60 years -- winning all 15 elections? Simple: Brand all criticism as libel. In April 2022, two journalists were sentenced to three weeks in jail after they accused PAP of "corruption at the highest echelons." Just for good measure, one of the defendants, Daniel De Costa, was sentenced to another three months for using an email account that didn't belong to him.
None of this is expected to change when Lee leaves office on May 15. In his last major address before his successor, Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, takes over, Lee warned that the country remains vulnerable to the rivalry between Beijing and Washington, which includes the threat of war.
"Please understand: We have succeeded, and Singapore has made exceptional economic and social gains, because our system is exceptional," Lee said on May 1. "The system does not have to fail outright for Singapore to get into trouble. Even if we just become ordinary, average, we will already be in serious trouble."
No change
The bottom line is that Singapore cannot change. Lee warned that the country will "certainly be sunk" by liberalization, which he termed populism, division or a focus on short-term gains. The strength of Singapore, he said, was its political and economic stability.
"Make the most of these advantages, never throw them away," Lee said. "Stay united, think long term and maintain our political stability. That is the way forward for Singapore."
With all the fanfare, the outsider might think that Lee has packed for the move to a retirement village. Actually, Lee is not going anywhere. As his father before him, the outgoing prime minister will remain a "senior minister" in the government. He will follow Putin's example when he made way for Dmitry Medvedev, president from 2008 to 2012, when the former still felt the need to present Russia as a democracy.
Expect Lee to do the same thing: Smile a lot in public but crack the whip behind the scenes. As far as elections are concerned, where there is only one party -- there's not much you need to do.