A Word First
Terrorism is commonplace in our world. But a major attack in Moscow after 20 years of relative calm cannot be ignored. And so, we won’t.
From on High
"IS has different hallmarks."
Russian analyst Dmitry Kiselyov dismisses the American claim that Islamic State attacked a Moscow concert hall.
The fire keeps burning: The aftermath of the attack on a Moscow concert hall. [Moscow News Agency]
The Enemy of My Enemy
On the face of it, the Islamic attack on a Moscow concert hall that killed nearly 150 people on March 22 seems more than improbable. Russia has no Islamic enemies. Its best friends include Algeria, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey and all the other allies of Islamic groups.
But then who says that Islamists can't be bought by their worst enemies -- namely Britain and the United States?
What took place last week is highly familiar to those following the U.S.-Russian war in Ukraine. Remember September 2022, a mysterious explosion destroys Russia's Nord Stream gas pipelines to Europe and leaves an entire continent to freeze. Washington blames Moscow for the attack, and months later the Americans are outed as the culprits.
That attack cost Russia billions of dollars in lost revenue. But the end of Nord Stream changed Washington's alliance with Western Europe, particularly Germany. That's not so simple to replace.
Getting smarter
Since then, the White House has gotten smarter. U.S. attacks on Russia have been disguised as operations by the Ukrainian military. Joe Biden even sent unmanned aerial vehicles to terrorize Moscow. It made no dent, however, in the Russian offensive in Ukraine.
The worst humiliation came on March 18 when Vladimir Putin won his fifth term as president in a landslide. U.S. efforts to influence the election or arrange for massive protests failed miserably. Despite promises of an Election Day surprise, everybody in Washington knew that the strongman would emerge from the elections stronger than ever.
The attack on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall, which included Molotov Cocktails and live fire, was discussed long before March 18. Indeed, Russian intelligence expected an outrage immediately after a Putin win. What they didn't figure on was that the target would be ordinary kids at a rock concert at the edge of Moscow.
IS not involved
One thing is clear: Islamic State-Khorasanor, which belatedly issued a claim of responsibility, was not behind the outrage. There was nothing about the attack that suggested IS's methods and training. Russian sources said four men participated in the operation, all from Tajikistan.
"IS has different hallmarks," Russian analyst and broadcaster Dmitry Kiselyov said. "Acts of terror in the name of IS are perpetrated by suicide attackers who do not try to flee afterwards."
Washington says it relayed a warning of an imminent IS-related strike at least two weeks earlier. And indeed, that was a lesson of Nord Stream: Remove all fingerprints before the attack and even offer help to your enemy.
"In early March, the U.S. government shared information with Russia about a planned terrorist attack in Moscow," U.S. National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said.
Contacts and money
Planning for the Moscow attack needed little expertise. Just pick up a paper and find an out-of-the-way spot where thousands would gather — and that’s your target. Pick up some guns, gasoline, bottles, rags and a fast car. Find some guys who would fit in with the people you’re planning to kill. And you’re in business.
The fact is that Washington has as many Islamic contacts as Moscow and a lot more money. Washington’s friend Iran controls virtually every Shi'ite terrorist faction this side of the Potomac. Old friend Qatar finances the Sunni side. NATO ally Turkey controls numerous insurgency groups in the neighboring Muslim states of Central Asia, including Tajikistan.
In the wake of the carnage, Biden remains with the hope that Putin will not play the same game. Certainly, the White House was encouraged by the Kremlin's restraint after Nord Stream. But Putin has won his election; Biden is just beginning his bid to remain in the White House.
The ball is in the Kremlin’s court. Unlike Biden, Putin, the ex-KGB operator, is a patient man.