From S.R.
We had to ditch our original report to bring you this update. It's about the imminent war in the Middle East and China's potential role. Speculation, you say. Damn right.
He said. She said.
"I'd like to say with a very loud voice from here in Damascus that America has a responsibility in what happened and must be held responsible."
Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian blames Washington for Israel's alleged attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria.
Focus
Iran tests its UAVs — for imminent war?
Nothing Personal
How does China perceive the Iranian war drums against Israel? What does Beijing want -- war or peace? Can the Chinese leadership stop Iran from an all-out war that could destroy the Jewish state?
On paper, China and Iran are best of friends. In 2021, the two countries signed a 25-year strategic cooperation agreement that included massive Chinese investment in Iran, first dibs on Iranian oil, military exercises and significant help in modernizing Teheran's security forces, particularly in cyber.
But that doesn't mean China can steer Iranian policy. The proof of that has been seen over the last six months as Iran's proxies in Yemen, called the Houthis, have launched a war against shipping, particularly Western, in the Gulf of Aden. The consequences have been damaging to China's exports and supply chains.
In other words, Iran will work with China until the point that Teheran's strategic interests are at stake. President Xi Jinping now understands that.
Does China want total war between Israel and Iran? The answer is no: China's economic and strategic lifeline depends on access to foreign markets, particularly the Gulf. A war would block Chinese and other ships from entering the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Airspace might very well be shut to civilian traffic not only in Iran but Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria.
This is not good for business.
But it is likely that Beijing, unlike Russia, sees its response to the current crisis as a test of loyalty to Iran. China knows that it is not popular in many circles in Teheran, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the enforcer of the Iranian regime and which lost two generals in the April 1 bombing on Damascus. Iran certainly needs China over the long run, but the latter needs Teheran today to maintain the flow of oil and other energy.
Twenty years ago, China would have had the same dilemma with Israel. But Israel allowed the United States to destroy its strategic and military ties with Beijing. The Chinese-Israeli relationship has been reduced to something purely commercial -- meaning expendable in the short term. In contrast, Washington and Teheran have been building strategic ties that keep China on its toes.
The bottom line: China will continue to side with Iran regardless of what happens in the Middle East. China has made clear that Teheran could attack Israel directly but try to avoid a war. This is probably the line of Russia, which wields much greater influence on Iranian policy, particularly in the Levant. The United States, with the most public of diplomacy, is doing no less in appeasing the mullahs, including constant and effective pressure on Israel not to retaliate.
In the end, Iran's response was influenced by the superpowers. On April 14, Iran launched a reported 300 missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles from five countries toward Israel. The missiles didn’t reach anywhere near Israel’s nerve centers — whether Tel Aviv, the commercial capital or Haifa, with its heavy industry. No deaths or major damage was reported.
Still, as the aggressor Teheran wields all options. There will probably be more and greater attacks on Israel. Iran likes to use proxies, such as Hamas, Hizbullah, Islamic Jihad, Houthis and Iraqi militias. There could be a series of deniable operations, including one in which an Israeli city is held hostage for several days.
Not surprisingly, China failed to condemn the April 24 Iranian missile attack. And as Teheran gains courage and intensifies its war, China will sit on the sidelines. Beijing will maintain silence in face of any aggression against Israel yet would be highly vocal in case the Jewish state retaliates. Beijing would also make a show of joining diplomatic efforts to pressure Israel.
Nothing personal: It's just China taking care of business.
Ticker Tape
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