From S.R.
Quietly, China has been developing an impressive and massive aerospace industry. Now, a leading Middle East executive predicts that Chinese civilian aircraft will soon become a major player in the global market
He said. She said.
"Over the next decade COMAC has a unique opportunity to break this duopoly into a triopoly because on the one hand Airbus is sold out, and Boeing is having production problems."
UAE aerospace executive Firoz Tarapore is high on China's capture of a major stake in the global civil aviation market.
Focus
And Then There Was One
China has spent decades developing its civilian aerospace industry, with a key goal being the production and marketing of an aircraft that could compete in the West.
That goal is getting closer to being fulfilled.
China's baby has been the C919 jet, produced by the state-owned COMAC. Now, a leading aerospace executive says that C919 and its derivatives could break the global monopoly by Airbus and Boeing. C919 has price and availability on its side.
"Over the next decade COMAC has a unique opportunity to break this duopoly into a triopoly because on the one hand Airbus is sold out, and Boeing is having production problems," Firoz Tarapore said.
Tarapore heads one of the most important aircraft companies in the Middle East. He is chief executive officer of Dubai Aerospace Enterprise in the United Arab Emirates, which specializes in leasing civilian planes and has a fleet of 500 aircraft.
The assessment by Tarapore, a 35-year veteran in global companies, reflects the progress Beijing has made over the last 20 years. As early as 2011, the Rand Corp. cited China's aerospace capabilities and its increasing participation in the global market as well as contributing to the supply chains of Airbus, Boeing and other top companies.
Now comes COMAC's opportunity. Airbus can't increase production fast enough to meet global demand and airlines are looking for alternatives. Boeing is in worse shape in wake of a blowout of its new 737 Max aircraft in January 2024 and a criminal investigation opened by Washington two months later.
In contrast, the narrow-body C919, which conducted its maiden flight in 2017, developed slowly, taking into consideration every safety scenario. That delayed things but infused confidence in potential clients looking for an aircraft for the short- and medium-haul.
In a recent interview with Reuters, Tarapore expressed rising interest among Arab and other allies of Beijing to try out C919. He is convinced that the Chinese product, which completed its first commercial flight in May 2023, marks a "perfectly fine aircraft" that can measure up to Airbus' A320 or Boeing's Max.
But the safety issue is exactly what is keeping the C919 from competing in the West. Influenced by geopolitics as well as competition, such aerospace agencies as the Federal Aviation Administration and European Aviation Safety Agency could take years until they grant the Chinese certification. COMAC has formally applied with EASA.
That leaves the C919 largely operating in China and with an airline from Indonesia. But COMAC has been pushing for sales in the Middle East.
Tarapore does not discount the prospects of C919, whether in the Middle East or anywhere other than Europe and the United States. "[It has] a very good chance of making a solid inroad," he said.
Tarapore's analysis, echoed by others in the industry, is based on demand. Airlines around the world are ordering new aircraft. But the major producers simply can't handle new orders. The industry has been marred by a labor shortage, supply chain problems and engine flaws. Airbus has acknowledged that it will be unable to take new orders until after 2030.
Boeing's problems are directly affecting Middle East operators, including DAE. The Dubai giant expects Boeing to deliver no more than half the number of aircraft ordered for this year. That leaves DAE wide open to consider alternatives.
In the long run, Tarapore sees Boeing as bouncing back and restoring production. But by that time the U.S. company could face new competition, particularly from China.
"In 30 years from now, I believe we will not be talking about a duopoly, we will definitely be an industry where COMAC plays a much more significant role," Tarapore said.
Ticker Tape
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